Welcome!

Let's start with the easy stuff first: "The Crisis" is the one predicted by William Strauss and Neil Howe, originally in their 1991 book "Generations." Looking at the last 400 years or so of American and English history, they noted (as others had before them) that periods of upheaval occurred roughly every 90 years. The theory of history they put together also gave a mechanism explaining this recurrence as being one of a cycle of four "turnings," each of which lasts just over 20 years. They expected the next upheaval to begin soon after the turn of the century, and gave 2005 as a likely starting point.

As the new century began, there was no lack of possible starting points for the Crisis. The fears of Y2K bugs causing a meltdown of civilization didn't materialize, but within a few months there was the popping of the dot-com bubble followed by the acrimonious 2000 presidential election. The September 11 attacks gave all indications of being just the sort of catalyst Strauss and Howe predicted....but the authors' internet postings soon after indicated that they thought the timing was not in line with their theory. In the year 2005, Hurricane Katrina fit both the predicted timing and the expected public impact, although it seemed more of a local event than one affecting the entire country. With the financial crisis of fall 2008, though, that it became clear that something had definitely changed. People who discuss this theory on the Fourth Turning website stopped asking IF the Crisis had begun, and instead started asking WHEN.

And that's where I am, here. I wanted a place to post my thoughts on where we are, where we're going, and what's next. Having accepted that the Crisis has started, I'll mention my thoughts on the WHEN, and what they imply for the future.   I may look forward to the period following the Crisis (the "High" or "First Turning") or even later than that.  Most of the time, though, I expect that I'll post a few sentences  observing what is going on in the world within this Strauss & Howe context. Since their theory is cyclical, there will probably be some comparisons with past turnings ("High School Musical" is Mickey Rooney/Judy Garland Let's-Put-On-a-Show redux!) and some predictions about what's next.

Maybe it'll be interesting....