Calm

The stock market is up - largely due to Apple - gold is down, oil is flat, and so (more or less) are Treasuries. The Greece deal seems to have soothed the overall financial markets, and iPad 3 demand at least suggests consumer confidence.

Then again, there don't seem to be any great options for Afghanistan or Iran. For the former, there's no desire to stay - just not to appear chased off by some unfortunate events. For the latter, even assuaging Israel and avoiding intervention just feels like kicking the can down the road. The exceptional protection for Iran's nuclear facilities bring to mind Peenemunde more than General Electric. They give every indication of having weapons production (rather than fuel) as their goal. And the difference in reaction to, say, Iraq versus North Korea indicates that it's in Iran's best interest to become a nuclear power sooner rather than later.

Sometimes, though, kicking the can down the road is just what's needed. If there isn't support based on what's currently known (and on attitudes towards intervention / pre-emption / all-out war), then it's not action that can (or should be) forced. Waiting for fullness, as Valentine Smith would say, will allow whatever is necessary to be complete. Or, if it shouldn't happen, it will make the wisdom of avoiding it that much clearer.

Which brings us to a period - a day,a month, perhaps longer - where the Crisis isn't that bad. A hint of stress in the air, maybe. There was a point right after the credit crunch where it seemed too late to prepare, and the only option was to hang on for the ride. It's like that in reverse, right now: At the end of the loop-de-loop, we know the cars are being pulled up to the top of the next hill. Any good ride Designer will keep you guessing about what the next surprise is. Unless he's showing it to you intentionally, of course. Either way, it's the right time to take a deep breath.