Thursday, September 4, 2014

Recruiting

The brutal executions disseminated in full motion video by the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq have been baffling. Getting the attention of the United States on their successful but small operation seems a grave strategic error. Air strikes with minimal risk to the U.S. military have been the inevitable and easily predicted response. Ransoms will also be more difficult to obtain, information on the other actions of their self-described caliphate will be more widely disseminated, and support to their enemies is likely to increase.

In addition to increasing immediate pushback, it would seem to increase the chances of a Last Crusade as the peak of the Crisis. Even those who aren't cognizant (or are morally opposed to the arguments) of The Fourth Turning have to recognize the likelihood that eventually the United States will be going to war again with people who haven't been as friendly as preferred.

This morning, it starts to make sense. Al-Qaeda has announced that it is starting a branch in India. A request for support was also made. There is bound to be a limited supply of funds and fighters for this sort of effort, and Islamic State is ahead in the marketing campaign, with more public awareness due to these high profile videos. 

(That article also includes business buzzwords ("growth market", "struggling international brand"), which is unfortunately difficult to avoid doing in this context.  It's a bit too light-hearted, though, for groups that have made high-definition beheadings common, or murdered dozens aboard airplanes in a plot to murder even more in iconic buildings.)

Nonetheless, it at least gives a rational explanation for their actions (albeit in an Economic Man context that probably ignores some important motivations): By being more visible than their competition Islamic State is better able to acquire the lifeblood of their operation: money, supporters, and recruits.

No comments:

Post a Comment