Presumably because of independence Day being this week, the exit hymn at church was "The Battle Hymn of the Republic." (They called it "Mine Eyes Have Seen the Glory" - whatever. ) Since reading Strauss & Howe, though, I can't handle it in church. The righteous martial attitude is too much. Not that I dislike it, but that it's like "The War Prayer": far too truthful.
The American Civil War is called an anomaly by Strauss & Howe because it's the one place in American history where their theory skips a beat. There is not a proper Hero/Civic generation from that war. The explanation is that the war happened too soon, as the "debate" between pro- and anti-slavery Prophets (Transcendentalist generation) quickly moved out of the political sphere and into warfare. The Gilded (Reactive) instead ended up in the trenches, with leadership roles filled by the Prophets. The combination of our-cause-is-just leaders and get-it-done followers is one reason for an exceptionally deadly conflict - as indicated by what the Union was marching to. For comparison, let's consider songs associated with other conflicts.
American Revolution: Yankee Doodle, a cute little nothing about getting above your station and trying to make it work for you.
War of 1812: The Star Spangled Banner, a poem about a symbol of home and freedom and what has to be done to keep them.
World War I : Over There. Do you know the words besides the title? In any case, it's a song of pride, in doing the right thing because that's what you do.
World War II: Boogie Woogie Bugle Boy, maybe, and swing music in general. "O How I Hate to Get Up in the Morning," too: songs about the ubiquity of military life and the impact of the war. Still an enjoyable tune that is escapist in tone.
Note here that none of the above get sung in church, except rarely the national anthem.
And then there's John Browns Body... So we're starting here from a song celebrating an attempt to foment insurrection by a Prophet who was willing to use Any Means Necessary. Translated to a more general, well, hymn of violence, it hasn't lost any of it's fervor. The Lord is "trampling out," wielding a "terrible swift sword," and "His truth is marching on." No quarter asked nor given here, no question of choices to be made, no ditties about downtime, just zeal and righteous destruction.
Monday, July 2, 2012
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
Prophecies
The subtitle of The Fourth Turning is "An American Prophecy," and of course both Strauss and Howe are Boomers, the current Prophet generation. Part of their Prophecy is that a great and deadly War (Crisis) is coming soon, One That Will Remake the World. (And which, go figure, will be followed by a new Golden Age (High), which is what any good Prophecy should also have.)
Unlike other prophets, they do let us see behind the curtain to know how it is done. That we all can understand the future and the past better, now, is their greater gift. It's still amusing - and reassuring - that their theory of history predicts that, as Boomers/Prophets, their vision of the future would be apocalyptic - that is, they are exactly the people who would see history in the way that they do.
Unlike other prophets, they do let us see behind the curtain to know how it is done. That we all can understand the future and the past better, now, is their greater gift. It's still amusing - and reassuring - that their theory of history predicts that, as Boomers/Prophets, their vision of the future would be apocalyptic - that is, they are exactly the people who would see history in the way that they do.
Wednesday, June 13, 2012
Gatsby
My concern about the new Gatsby movie is that it's going to be treated like a lament of the excesses of the 1920s, as if Fitzgerald knew about the Crash and isn't it clear that this was going to happen? The book came out in 1925, four years before Black
Monday, so it was popular even when most investors (including the public) were expecting the party to continue indefinitely.
As a Reactive - like Gatsby and Nick and Fitzgerald - I see "The Great Gatsby" as symbolic of aspiration, of trying your best and beyond, of wanting to be more. It's a tragedy that he fails, not that he tries.
And he doesn't fail because he's bad - no shock, that, him being a Reactive and all - but because he's taking on Society. Some positive aspects of society oppose him: Daisy is married with a child and it's Not Okay - but it's the negative that gets in his way and ultimately kills him. It's the upper-class jerk Daisy is married to who's seeing the lady and leads people to think Gatsby was driving, and who is unapologetic about the lie and its consequences.
Monday, so it was popular even when most investors (including the public) were expecting the party to continue indefinitely.
As a Reactive - like Gatsby and Nick and Fitzgerald - I see "The Great Gatsby" as symbolic of aspiration, of trying your best and beyond, of wanting to be more. It's a tragedy that he fails, not that he tries.
And he doesn't fail because he's bad - no shock, that, him being a Reactive and all - but because he's taking on Society. Some positive aspects of society oppose him: Daisy is married with a child and it's Not Okay - but it's the negative that gets in his way and ultimately kills him. It's the upper-class jerk Daisy is married to who's seeing the lady and leads people to think Gatsby was driving, and who is unapologetic about the lie and its consequences.
Saturday, May 26, 2012
Tolkien
Off-the-cuff analysis:
"The Lord of the Rings" is Fourth Turning - huge war, big changes, nothing quite the same after.
"The Hobbit" is Third Turning - individuals in search of riches, minimal government initiative, notable wars that don't much change the balance of power, and minor subplots that later turn out to be a much bigger deal.
Haven't read "The Silmarillion" although it sounds like it covers a couple of them, perhaps a Golden Age First Turning corrupted by Sauron leading to the rebellious attempt by Men to set foot on the lands to the West. But don't quote me in that.
"The Lord of the Rings" is Fourth Turning - huge war, big changes, nothing quite the same after.
"The Hobbit" is Third Turning - individuals in search of riches, minimal government initiative, notable wars that don't much change the balance of power, and minor subplots that later turn out to be a much bigger deal.
Haven't read "The Silmarillion" although it sounds like it covers a couple of them, perhaps a Golden Age First Turning corrupted by Sauron leading to the rebellious attempt by Men to set foot on the lands to the West. But don't quote me in that.
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Russia
The Los Angeles Times has an article about the relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church and the secular rules of the country. The title -- "Russian Orthodox Church is in spiritual crisis, critics say" -- evokes the possibility of an Awakening beginning there, which might help solve the question some have about Russia's Saeculum: was the period from 1912 to 1945 one unusually long Crisis, or was it experiencing a different set of Turnings?
Besides that title, the indications of Russia's current turning include:
"Twenty years of democratic Russia" drawing the period since the fall of the USSR into a single box
Corruption - a strong sign of a First Turning - being openly discussed and opposed, specifically in terms of an expensive watch worn by the patriarch in an official photo - and then inexpertly erased. (An echo of Stalin there that suggests a unity between that 80-year-ago time and now.)
Indications of popular protest against the existing regimes, both secular and religious, with a group of young women "dancing" against the status quo.
Together, they suggest the imminent transition from a High to an Awakening. An obvious problem then is, when was their Crisis? It would have to have been from about 1970 to 1992. The peak would have started in the late 1980s, possibly as soon as Chernobyl. Which works, in its way, even if it's not the sort of Crisis we've seen in the United States. And it would indicate a previous Crisis around the time of the October Revolution. Further, this suggests that Stalin's regime was during the corresponding High. The Purges further support this view, as the search for enemies is a common post-Crisis occurrence, leading to witch hunts both literal (Salem, 1692) and metaphorical (McCarthy, 1950).
Besides that title, the indications of Russia's current turning include:
Together, they suggest the imminent transition from a High to an Awakening. An obvious problem then is, when was their Crisis? It would have to have been from about 1970 to 1992. The peak would have started in the late 1980s, possibly as soon as Chernobyl. Which works, in its way, even if it's not the sort of Crisis we've seen in the United States. And it would indicate a previous Crisis around the time of the October Revolution. Further, this suggests that Stalin's regime was during the corresponding High. The Purges further support this view, as the search for enemies is a common post-Crisis occurrence, leading to witch hunts both literal (Salem, 1692) and metaphorical (McCarthy, 1950).
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
Summary
One of the tricky parts of the historical analysis that Strauss & Howe enabled is having a concise description of how it all works. Here's my attempt.
History can be seen as cyclical. One of the most obvious patterns is the ~90 year repeat of major conflicts - (... 1776, 1861, 1945... ) A less obvious but notable one is a similar repeat of spiritual upheaval that consistently happens halfway between these crisis periods (1740, 1820, 1896...) Starting from these, Strauss & Howe propose a theory of history as a two-step cycle, comprised of an ~80 year cycle called a Saeculum and a 20 year cycle called a Turning. There are four distinct Turnings in a Saeculum:
The First Turning, or High, follows a Crisis period. It celebrates (and attempts to perpetuate) the concerted effort that enabled victory - or at least survival. The most recent example in the U.S. was the post-World War II era.
The Second Turning, or Awakening, is a period of spiritual tumult as society rebels against the conformance of the High. These include the Great Awakening of the early 1700s and Protestant Reformation.
During the Third Turning, or Unraveling, the loss of social structures yields an abundance of individual freedom and innovation, albeit without a unified focus or interest in solving societal problems. The Roaring 20s and the 1990s "dot-com" era were part of Unravelings.
The Fourth Turning, or Crisis, is a period of secular upheaval as society attempts to fix problems that can no longer wait. It usually culminates in a war that defines the culture through the next Saeculum.
Driving and defining these cycles are the human participants that pass through them. A generation raised during a particular Turning has common experiences that will affect how they live the rest of their lives. The impact of Turnings results in generational archetypes that repeat with the Turnings.
The dangerous Crisis yields cautious Artists.
The static High brings forth rebellious Prophets.
The zealous Awakening spawns cynical Nomads.
The chaotic Unraveling raises united Heroes.
The archetypes active at a point in time then defines the Turning, resulting in these consistently recurring cycles. While exceptions occur (the best-known being the too-early American Civil War) these cycles have been traced back over the last 600 years of Anglo-American history, and have been identified in other modern cultures, as well as ancient civilizations like Rome and Greece.
History can be seen as cyclical. One of the most obvious patterns is the ~90 year repeat of major conflicts - (... 1776, 1861, 1945... ) A less obvious but notable one is a similar repeat of spiritual upheaval that consistently happens halfway between these crisis periods (1740, 1820, 1896...) Starting from these, Strauss & Howe propose a theory of history as a two-step cycle, comprised of an ~80 year cycle called a Saeculum and a 20 year cycle called a Turning. There are four distinct Turnings in a Saeculum:
Driving and defining these cycles are the human participants that pass through them. A generation raised during a particular Turning has common experiences that will affect how they live the rest of their lives. The impact of Turnings results in generational archetypes that repeat with the Turnings.
The archetypes active at a point in time then defines the Turning, resulting in these consistently recurring cycles. While exceptions occur (the best-known being the too-early American Civil War) these cycles have been traced back over the last 600 years of Anglo-American history, and have been identified in other modern cultures, as well as ancient civilizations like Rome and Greece.
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