Insight

I updated the blog description the other day. Being forced to be concise ("500 word limit") can yield useful insights. In this case it was about the nature of the Crisis as Strauss & Howe see it.

Their descriptions often point to a single huge event, and The Crisis Is That: The American Revolution, the Spanish Armada, the Civil War. This can lead to the impression that a Crisis is about a single Event. However, that is not only not the rule, it's really the exception.

The Crisis is a period of time during which culture-redefining changes happen. The changes may be primarily traced to a particular source, but that doesn't mean That is the real cause. Most of the time, the Crisis is a series of changes - some related, some not - implemented over the course of this two-decade-and-change period. They reveal a desire to fix pressing problems at hand. (Whether the problems are really THE most important ... well, it's not clear whether that is considered.) As one fix is implemented, another problem becomes evident. This reinforces the notion that Crises aren't thrust upon us, but are caused by the people at this point in history.

The American Revolution itself led to the organization of the Federal government - related problems. The Great Depression was followed by World War II - less related. And the Depression can be seen as separate periods where the resolution was handled in different ways: a few years under Hoover, an initial period of welcome change by FDR, a period in which change (such as "packing" the Supreme Court) was less welcome, and then the lead-in to the war.

Seeing reactions to Obama and his policies does suggest parallels to that period. Both he and those opposed to him initiate measures that they believe will resolve significant problems. They each may have larger goals they are pursuing, although those can easily be lost in the day-to-day tactical moves that all involved are making. We shouldn't expect to see a huge change, because we wouldn't necessarily recognize it as such. And one person's massive realignment is another's "What took you so long?" Even after the fact, tying together the different events is a matter of interpretation, not causation.