There are a number of possibilities for what happens at the peak of this Crisis - a subject I intend to come back to. The last week, though, suggests that it could be what I call "The Last Crusade," a war against Islam. Whether the Mohammed parody was the actual impetus or an effective cover, I see comments from left and right - professional bloggers and Facebook friends - indicating that many folks consider the current state unsustainable.
I won't try to predict what the implications of this potential peak would be, much less the effective outcome. It's simply a possibility that fits well with what has gone before. And which seems more likely at this moment because of the universality of sentiment.
Perhaps that is a sign of the Crisis: when people start to agree on the action, even though they might disagree on the reason.
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
Caution
I perhaps get too much of my material from Mystery Science Theater 3000. Still, the collection of older movies watched collectively in the 3rd and 4th Turnings yields interesting context and comparisons. One surprising revelation came watching "Hired!," a training short for car salesmen.
The newly hired young Chevrolet salesperson trying to put together lead lists is reminiscent of other Grey Flannel Suit men from the 1T. He is having some trouble getting sales, mostly attributed to insufficient training from his boss. The state of the economy isn't mentioned, which is surprising because it's not from the First Turning: It was released in 1940. The Great Depression is just barely over (people might not even realize it), Germany has just marched into Poland, and the Battle of Britain is ongoing. The economy has nonetheless recovered to the point where people are back to selling cars, hiring new salesmen, and training them and their bosses.
(The generational breakdown, though, is right in line with late 4T. The boss is a Reactive griping about the young Civic who is unable to sell effectively. Complaining to his father (evidently a Missionary (Prophet)), gets him an earful about the training his mentor gave him. The advice turns out to be appropriate to today's Xers and Millennials, too.)
The Crisis happens different ways in different places, and at different times. Just as it was hard to say when it started, we should expect the end to be hard to see as well. Watch out when you think we are done. The really hard part might still be ahead of us.
The newly hired young Chevrolet salesperson trying to put together lead lists is reminiscent of other Grey Flannel Suit men from the 1T. He is having some trouble getting sales, mostly attributed to insufficient training from his boss. The state of the economy isn't mentioned, which is surprising because it's not from the First Turning: It was released in 1940. The Great Depression is just barely over (people might not even realize it), Germany has just marched into Poland, and the Battle of Britain is ongoing. The economy has nonetheless recovered to the point where people are back to selling cars, hiring new salesmen, and training them and their bosses.
(The generational breakdown, though, is right in line with late 4T. The boss is a Reactive griping about the young Civic who is unable to sell effectively. Complaining to his father (evidently a Missionary (Prophet)), gets him an earful about the training his mentor gave him. The advice turns out to be appropriate to today's Xers and Millennials, too.)
The Crisis happens different ways in different places, and at different times. Just as it was hard to say when it started, we should expect the end to be hard to see as well. Watch out when you think we are done. The really hard part might still be ahead of us.
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
11
This is less the 11th anniversary of 9/11, than the 10th anniversary of one year later.
Every day between that Tuesday and one year later, we expected that the follow up was coming. Surely Al Qaeda hadn't put all this effort into a single day - certainly, another one must be on the way? And there was the occasional possibility - Flight 587, the anthrax attacks, the Beltway sniper. None were as horrific, as terrible, as we expected. The entry into war in Afghanistan was mild enough, for most Americans, and so it went for that whole year.
When the one-year anniversary happened, it was like crossing a finish line. There were commemorations, retrospectives, but mostly a chance to put an endpoint on what had happened. And here we are again, with a chance to move forward. One that, maybe, we will accept.
Every day between that Tuesday and one year later, we expected that the follow up was coming. Surely Al Qaeda hadn't put all this effort into a single day - certainly, another one must be on the way? And there was the occasional possibility - Flight 587, the anthrax attacks, the Beltway sniper. None were as horrific, as terrible, as we expected. The entry into war in Afghanistan was mild enough, for most Americans, and so it went for that whole year.
When the one-year anniversary happened, it was like crossing a finish line. There were commemorations, retrospectives, but mostly a chance to put an endpoint on what had happened. And here we are again, with a chance to move forward. One that, maybe, we will accept.
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Singles
In this Saeculum we've gone from single pop songs in the 50s, to huge rock operas taking 4 vinyl sides, then back around to single digital tunes. Maybe the 4T is just too much to keep track of bigger chunks of music.
Hmm... "Fanfare for the Common Man," which is pretty close to a "single" in classical music (right down to its 3-minute length) was composed by Copland in 1942, in the middle of the war.
Then again, maybe it's that the 2T is the only time with ideas big enough to support that much unified and organized music. Was the Ring cycle done during the Progressive era? I think it might have been. If so, we can expect that singles will be the way music is consumed for another 40 years, at which time someone will figure out a way to package digital music into a form that requires an hour of steady listening.
Hmm... "Fanfare for the Common Man," which is pretty close to a "single" in classical music (right down to its 3-minute length) was composed by Copland in 1942, in the middle of the war.
Then again, maybe it's that the 2T is the only time with ideas big enough to support that much unified and organized music. Was the Ring cycle done during the Progressive era? I think it might have been. If so, we can expect that singles will be the way music is consumed for another 40 years, at which time someone will figure out a way to package digital music into a form that requires an hour of steady listening.
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