Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Surprises

The empire of Japan achieved a stunning tactical victory when it snuck a half-dozen aircraft carriers across the Pacific in early December 1941. On the bright Sunday morning that was December 7, waves of planes attacked American ships and sailors in Pearl Harbor. Wielding bombs and air-launched torpedoes, Mitsubishi Zeroes left the pride of the American Pacific fleet as smoking hulks. Japan had gained unchallenged control of the western Pacific. 

For about 6 months. 

It was in May 1942 that the Battle of Midway revealed that the Americans had quickly learned the importance of air power. (The ability to crack Japan's  cryptography was also very helpful.) The victory there showed that the United States was going to fight back forcefully in response to the Day of Infamy. It took almost three more years of fierce fighting to move across other Pacific islands, but that December morning had given Americans all the incentive they needed. Soon, bombers were able to reach from American bases there to the Japanese home islands.

On July 16, 1945, the Trinity test confirmed the ability to trigger an atomic explosion using plutonium, in a weapon nicknamed "Fat Man". That same day, the USS Indianapolis departed San. Francisco with the "Little Boy" uranium device. It would arrive at Tinian ten days later. Only a week and a half passed before the Little Boy was loaded onto the Enola Gay and dropped upon Hiroshima. Three days after that, on August 9, a Fat Man was dropped on Nagasaki.

On August 15, less than a week later, Japan announced that it would be surrendering. Less than a month after the Trinity test, the war was over. The United States had achieved a surprise victory, one that avoided the need for a full invasion of the Japanese home islands which would likely have resulted in millions of American and Japanese casualties. 

The unexpected power vacuum was noticed quickly in a little-remarked area of Southeast Asia. After Japan's announcement of surrender, revolutionary forces immediately took control of Vietnam. In the North, anyway - Ho Chi Minh's Viet Minh were unable to do the same in the more diverse South of the country before Allied troops took over a month later. The division between north and south accentuated by the sudden changes would lead to nearly thirty years of war involving the French and, later, the United States


Great tactical successes may require surprise. They can also change power structures and invite a disproportionate response. Someone who has enjoyed an unexpected victory, however well-deserved, may want to keep this in mind.