Closures

“There are no bad assignments in our command."
Goodfellow AFB training instructor to trainees receiving their initial base assignments, Summer 1984

Today, June 30 2014, marks 20 years since control of Iraklion Air Station, Crete, Greece was transferred completely to the Greeks, ending a 40 year mission that stretched nearly to the end of World War II. Hellenikon Air Base in Athens had been closed the previous year. Other related bases in Germany, Italy, England, the Philippines, and elsewhere around the world closed around the same time. Most of the closures were the inevitable result of the end of the Cold War.

It's an interesting coincidence that a number of bases and squadrons were reassigned or redesignated on July 1, 1994. Note that this would be less than 18 months after Clinton began his term of office, and solidly before the mid-term elections that year changed the balance of power in Congress. The closure of bases was always a political question, trading between pork for constituents and national security concerns. That suggests that the short-term combination of Democratic  President and Congress allowed political cover on both sides. No doubt there was more to it than that.

Other bases continued in their missions for a while longer. Today, June 30 2014, marks the end of the 301st Intelligence Squadron mission at Misawa Air Base, Japan. In the heyday of Iraklion, Hellenikon, etc., the unit was known as the 6920th Electronic Security Group.  It will evidently become part of Alaska's Elmendorf Air Force Base, and continue its mission in some form. 

For better or worse, though, the available postings simply aren't the same as they used to be back then, when the sun never set on these units. Any recruit who found themselves in that area of the military could count on an overseas posting to start their career, and it was true enough that every one had its charms. This many decades later, though,  it is definitely a different world.

Bridge

The replacement of the eastern span of the Bay Bridge was initiated after the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake, which caused part of the span to collapse. It opened nearly 24 years later, in September 2013. It is a nearly complete replacement for the bridge, not simply a fix. Still, the period of time it took to diagnose, propose, initiate, and complete is rather long for what is a major connection between the city of San Francisco and surrounding areas.

One could say that - like the flood control of the Los Angeles River - it was an important project that couldn't get done until the Fourth Turning was here. There would be concerns about too much money, too much uncertainty, too much impact from having no alternatives during the construction period.  That's not necessarily correct, though - the project was moving forward by 2005, several years before what is generally acknowledged as the start of the Crisis. (And a month or so before Katrina, for those tempted to consider that the real starting point.) Reading through the troubled history, though, it does seem as if there eventually came a point where everyone acknowledged that there was a problem that needed resolution. And in relatively short order after that point, resolution was achieved.

Yearning

Between about 2001 and 2008, people on The Fourth Turning forums spent much time discussing whether the Crisis had started yet. The prediction in Generations was "soon after the new century" while The Fourth Turning suggested 2005. There were plenty of reasons for 9/11, the war in Iraq, Katrina, and other events to be considered. Neil Howe responded sometimes, mostly to say he didn't think any events fit... yet. 

He also mentioned a feeling about that time, which he referred to as "Turning Yearning." This was when people really were looking forward to the next Turning getting started, to these problems getting noticed, acknowledged, resolved. 

Perhaps it has been long enough already that everyone who cares accepts that the Crisis has started. And maybe being in the middle of it is exhausting enough that there is no need to ask for more of what we have. It does appear that problems are being worked on. In any case, Turning Yearning seems like yesterday's problem. 

Flights

"Just saw actress Amy Adams do something incredibly classy. She gave her 1st class seat to an American soldier. I'm an even bigger fan now," wrote Jemele Hill, an ESPN personality who happens to have about a quarter-million Twitter followers. "

The above is from the Los Angeles Times article about this "trending" act of generosity. There wouldn't be much else to say about it except with regards to a recent viewing of "The Best Years of Our Lives." This 1947 Best Picture Oscar winner looked at the lives of vets returning from World War II, and did so just a year or so after the end of the war. The opening minutes shows one man who is back in the States and simply trying to return to his hometown. Asking about commercial flights, he is told that there is one available - in about two weeks. The flight attendant eventually points the vet to the ATC (Army Transport Command) area at the airport, evidently so he can get a (free) Space Available flight. As his transaction is completed, a businessman arrives for his flight and is quickly set up. Told that his baggage is overweight, the businessman willingly accepts the additional fee. Meanwhile, at the ATC terminal, the waiting military men are told that their next flight ... Is cancelled. 

The businessman in this scene is not treated as some villain, sneering at the warrior returning from battle. He doesn't even expect special treatment. He is simply doing what he needs to do, getting on a flight and paying as he is asked. The contrast is pointed enough, though, that the intent is clear: patriotism is grand, but money is the real law of the land. 

The Fourth Turning is supposed to be about the  country resolving important outstanding problems. Whatever gets resolved, there will still be additional problems left over. People who thought the U.S. was going to do something substantive about class imbalances were disappointed - as were any who wanted those commie Soviets consigned to the same ash heap of History as the Third Reich. It will be important to accept and be happy at whatever progress is made, since expecting all problems to be fixed will only lead to endless dismay. 

Wallach

Veteran actor Eli Wallach passed away this week. The obituaries usually start with Il Buono, Il Brutto, Il Cattivo and  The Magnificent Seven, before mentioning everything else that he did. One of those other memorable roles was in The Misfits, with Marilyn Monroe, Clark Gable, and Montgomery Clift.   Directed by John Huston, the film was written by Arthur Miller, who was married to Monroe at the time. It's known for being Monroe's last film, and Gable's too.

Despite the hefty star power, though, it's not that impressive. It rambles from place to place, the characters are not quite interesting enough, and the climatic sequence doesn't come together as well as it might. It can still make an impression, though, as a view of the United States after the war - indeed, as the war is being left behind. (An earlier post mentioned it as an example of post-war drinking habits as shown in movies.) As Guido, Mr. Wallech is noticeable, perhaps because he did manage to get across the idea of veterans who won the war, but don't have any stake in the new world.

Phones

There are times when paying attention to cases such as this do little more than encourage avoiding cases like this. The government, in some form, is advocating a tiny exception, the most minor exclusion, on what can be searched or read through or checked over. Sometimes it's upon arrest, other times it has been been earlier than that. It can seem like the usual response is "of course the government may do this."

And then something like this unanimous verdict shows up, from what is often considered a conservative court with conservatives majorities, to say "No, actually, that's a very serious and complete archive of personal data there, not too different from 'papers and persons,' and you may not search it any more than you can search through someone's rolodex or any other items that might be easily found in their living rooms."

It wasn't that long ago that such assertions would have been considered an expansion of the power of courts, and that they were playing games with peoples lives - because if you couldn't arrest and try and convict these people who were clearly criminals, then good Americans were going to get hurt.  This time around, those commies at the Wall Street Journal are glad to be on the side of the Fourth Amendment.

It seems as if it's different, somehow, that many people support this even though in theory it will make them less safe. It could be that this is a ubiquitous device, so everyone understands what could be accessed by the government if their phone was the one being searched. It could also be that the Fourth is heading towards the peak, and a larger proportion of people are recognizing that Something Must Be Done - probably about The Government, which is acting as if it knows better than the rest of us what It Should Be Allowed to Do.

Miserable

Evidently nobody is happy. Even a good bull market is turning out to be bad news for the actual business of Wall Street.

And there's the expected guy who is saying that there's a different bubble, one that nobody else has noticed, that we should be worried about, instead.

Whereas there are multiple stories about how the Dow is just going up up up, which for some reason is not being called a bubble.

Based on previous experience, that means this market will pop within about 18 months - beginning of 2016. Soon enough.

Brand

Comedian and actor Russell Brand went before tens of thousands to push for revolution against a House of Commons that doesn't represent his interests or those of non-corporate Britain. Which seems very Fourth Turning.

I considered writing about it, then set it aside because something about it didn't seem quite right.  Some of which may have been personal opinion on what is real and what is not.

First, the idea of an anti-austerity group starting out with a call for revolution seems odd.  If your country is to the point where austerity measures are a danger, you may have bigger problems to solve first.

Second, just because someone is saying it now doesn't mean it hasn't been said before. A new consortium of left and right railing against the entrenched House would be worth paying attention to. Brand is speaking as part of the People's Assembly, a left-leaning group including left-leaning organizations. An alliance between trade unions and advocates for social justice won't have any exceptional leverage, or ability to remake Parliament. Meet the New Left, same as the Old Left.

The third, and really main, issue is the idea of a "peaceful, effortless, joyful revolution." An easy transition is not an expected part of the Fourth Turning. Maybe all people will be very happy about whatever happens, and maybe it won't require bloodshed. I wouldn't bet on that happening, but it's on the outer edges of possibility. Even in the best case, though, a rearrangement of priorities and goals for the government will require plenty of effort.

It may be that this is one of the taps that will eventually bring down the walls. It would be great if it was. So far it appears to be much less than that, though.

Ongoing

Yesterday's post noted that there sure seems to be a lot, lately, about the economy.

A Los Angeles Times article on that same subject indicates why that is probably the case: It's five years since the end of the Great Recession. In the United States, at least, the recession itself lasted about 12 months: Q3 2008 to Q2 2009, and this moment here is the end of Q2 2014, five years later.

Which is an odd place to put a reminder. Most people don't usually have markers for when recessions begin and end, unless there's a very specific event to tie it to. One started as the dot-com era ended in 2000. The Oil Shock started in October 1973, with the Yom Kippur War.  Those rare situations aside - and note that those are the starts of recessions, anyway - people really don't remember when they happen, exactly.

Still, it's clear that the end of the recession didn't make everything better.

Economy

There's a fair bit out there, lately, about the current state of the economy, and how maybe it's not doing all that well.

First, that while the economy is better, wages are stagnant enough in the long-term that it's becoming difficult to stay ahead without more debt. (Note that some economists don't consider additional debt a problem, although requiring debt just to keep gas in the car is probably not a good sign.)

Will the recession have ongoing effects that will keep the world permanently poorer? It's not clear what alliterative world this is being compared with - the one without the recession, or the one without the mortgage market that led up to it - and whether those would have ever been really richer. Presumably the systemic problems would have caught up one way or another.

Millennials living at home after college isn't anything unusual  - but how long will that go on? Although some of those mentioned are older than expected, those who graduated into the recession (whether in May 2008, right before the meltdown, or after that winter in May 2009) would have been 22 or 23 then, so in their late 20s now.

And finally, one that is more about what has changed and hasn't since 2008. It's surprising that it has taken quite this long for those investors to have rebelled. It may simply mean that they already had enough of their losses previously mitigated by the bailout that they are now realizing they shouldn't have had losses at all.

Patrons

It seems like a while since this sort of article has come around: "...Why Spotify, Amazon and iTunes Can't Save Musical Artists." Although it might be better to consider that musical artists aren't going anywhere - but what will society get from them? Will it be lowest-common-denominator happy-joy songs, dance hooks, and breakup ballads?  Will the results be different enough to notice?

One might say that recorded music undercut the need for individuals to learn how to play. There are millions of songs available to be purchased and inexpensive streaming options. Add in still-free-but-for-the-ads over-the-air radio and nobody has needed to play music to hear it for a very long time. The question is, what now? The cost of delivering (recorded) music has greatly decreased. The cost of production of music has a lower bound, though, measured in the number of hours required and the return on that investment. Compare that with a minimum  amount required to stay alive, particularly in an already difficult economy,  and one might realize that new production is likely to decrease. Unless other options are out there.

And so music and other artistic endeavors may return to patronage of various sorts. Some people can depend on already-available cash-flows to support them while they try their luck in a grueling business. Kickstarter has people asking for donations on plays, books, films, and musical endeavors. Petreon lets "creators" request ongoing donations from "patrons" based on output - release a video, get a dollar.

It is likely that one person's brilliant synthesis is the next person's lowest-common-denominator. Not everyone will like the new situation - already, many people do not. As long as there are those willing to pay for enjoying music, there will be incentive to create it. As ever, how the two balance out will determine what art looks like in the future.

Plague

Egyptians! Plagues! It must be THE Egyptians and THE Plagues! Right?

Well....no. Although as click bait goes, that is likely to be the intention.

This specific evidence for the plague was found in Egypt. And that's about the closest it comes to being tied to the Biblical plagues.

This particular plague was already known as the Plague of Cyprian, from the Bishop of Carthage who wrote of its effects. This archeological evidence was able to be tied to this one rather than a more localized outbreak.  It occurred in the Third Century AD, starting by 250 AD and continuing for at least twenty years. Which means that it was about two hundred years after the destruction of Jerusalem by the Romans. Similarly, it was about three hundred years after the Roman conquest of Egypt. This is a Roman plague, not an Egyptian one, although widespread enough to decimate the population in these areas all around the Med.

(Bonus Crisis: Wikipedia says this was part of the Crisis of the Third Century, when the Roman Empire was not doing very well for itself. Roma est omnis divisa in partes tres, not just France.)




(Bonus Bonus: Since when is Carthage a Roman city? Didn't they sow the land with salt? Evidently since Julius Caesar. And evidently not.)

And here's what's left after the eruption.
(Egypt is a few hundred miles southeast.)

The Biblical Plagues, on the other hand, have very little actual evidence besides what the Bible has to say. (Even if does seem like such a complete but rambling narrative that it should be true.) They would have occurred in the 13th Century BC or earlier, though, so well before this.

(Thera exploded in the 17th Century BC, for those who consider that a candidate.)

Terminators

Difficult choice today: Either show a video that starts automatically with an ad, or a transcript that is IN ALL CAPS AND DEMANDS THAT CNBC BE SOURCED.

In either case, uber-enterpreneur Elon Musk is concerned about Terminators. Or, anyway, about artificial intelligences attempting to eliminate humanity. Although it came up in that interview because, while he doesn't normally invest in other companies, he did put some money into a couple of AI ventures (Vicarious and DeepMind). The reason given was  "to keep an eye on what's going on in Artificial Intelligence" because of a possible "dangerous outcome."

That could just be considered just a quirk of an otherwise serious businessman. When Stephen Hawking says something similar, though, perhaps it's worth keeping an eye on. In which case, it is helpful that another smart person has written up the pros and cons of AI, and of building friendly AI.

They may all be right. And it may all be the anxiety of the age, trying to find the most dangerous threats out there, in case any is about to become an immediate threat as well. Which is part of the Crisis as well.

Impact

In the novel The Lost World, Ian Malcolm puts forth a theory for why the relatively short effects of the meteor impact resulted in absolute elimination of all dinosaurs - even those that survived the firestorm and artificial winter. The ones that survived had to adapt in a short period of time and then adapt again. It was too much for them to handle two major adaptations within a few years:

...major changes push animals closer to the edge. It destabilizes all sorts of behavior. And when the environment goes back to normal, it's not really a return to normal. In evolutionary terms, it's another big change, and it's just too much to keep up with.

A related alternate theory: the effects destroyed the food webs and ecosystems. This completely changed who was best adapted to the new world.  That the environment later returned to normal is irrelevant - and not really true. While the winter may have ended, other underlying ecosystems would have been irretreviably changed.   When Apple released the iPhone, Blackberry had a lock on business and Nokia  was in the lead on handsets. Those pioneers are still around, but too much has changed for them to easily return to where they were. Their business plans can't be built around "get back to the market share we had" - too much is different.  

It may be that the Fourth is heading the same way. People made it through the difficult times, they are starting to dig themselves out. Even if nothing else was to change radically, there is going to be a period of consolidation, of figuring what's next - in some cases, of trying to go back to the way things were. Some attempts might even work.

Retirement has to be reconsidered - whether or not it's really an option. There may be thoughts of moving from a starter home to something better...but prices have been bid up by companies with capital and an interest in renting. They might want to look into a different career....but wages have gone down, and there are still plenty of the out-of-work looking.

This next adaptation may be rough.

Starbucks

Starbucks is including significant tuition assistance as an employee benefit.

Chances are,  it will turn out to be a barely worthwhlie for the employees, and a minor decrease in earnings for the company. It still rings a bell, though, as if it is trying to solve a significant problem any way that it can.

Looking a back at the indicators of the Fourth Turning, we find items including

1) "Prophets enter elderhood, Nomads enter midlife, Heroes enter young adulthood."2) "America's institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up"3) This is a "response to a perceived threat to the nations very survival"4) "Civic authority revives”5) "Cultural expression finds a community purpose"6) "People begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group 7)The Crisis eventually becomes a "founding moment," "refreshing and redefining the national identity."

Is college debt a “perceived threat”? There are people who consider it a real problem.  Is Starbucks finding a community purpose, and locating itself as members of a larger group? It does sound that way.

There’s plenty of opinion and analysis out there, not all favorable. It is however possible that this is the sort of community action that will be seen, at least in the short term.

Runaway

It's rather impressive that Seth McFarland had a joke that would have been offensive at ANY time in the last 200 years. Or certainly at any reasonable setting for his Old West tale.

Because certainly Mr. McFarland is concerned his jokes aren't historically correct.

(Sure, the campfire scene in Blazing Saddles was impolite and not acceptable for children, but not offensive in the same way. Incidentally, Googling those two words ("Campfire Scene") yields mostly Blazing Saddles results.)

More of a setup than a joke (and evidently used more than it could really support), there is a town fair shooting gallery that shows runaway slaves as targets. Even without checking on when the film is actually set, it has to be in the 19th century. While there may have been pioneers in the area before 1800, this is when the West really came into being. In any case,  the "joke" would have been problematic in many areas.

Considering the outcome of a war that killed more Americans than any other - and by far the highest as a percentage of population - it would have been in bad taste certainly from Good Friday 1865, and probably as early as April 12, 1861. Even when the Awakening began around the 1880s and the Lost Cause narrative began taking hold, to ascribe such barbaric motives to that Holy Cause might have been unpalatable even in the South. (Plus it would have tainted that narrative's concept of slavery as a benign institution.)

Even before the start of the American Civil War, slavery was a subject that most of the country didn't have a sense of humor about. There were Southerners who considered it part of the heritage, abolitionists who thought it ungodly, and everyone else who could see where the debate was going to end up and not necessarily in a hurry to push it there. One can easily imagine John Brown showing up to do what Django does here. After the passage of the Fugitive Slave Act of 1850,  helping runaways became a badge of honor in much of the North.  And before that, while constitutionally required, there was no particular advantage to interfering with fugitive slaves. Which means the reference really only makes sense in slave states before 1850.

Actually, it's set in Arizona in 1882, so it really makes no sense at all. Slavery hadn't existed for 17 years. Even Doc Brown is three years too early.

Apocalypse

Having a goal of posting to this blog each day doesn’t mean an acceptable way to get it done is finding someone else’s post and pasting it in. Nor that it would make sense to filter for news stories or opinion pieces that include the terms Crisis, Collapse, Apocalypse, or Cloverfield.

Still,  this post on how Cantor's defeat is a bigger deal than implied merely by first-order political results is quite insightful.  

First, though, it should be noted that it includes the following words: Apocalypse (in the title), threat, collapse, destruction, lawlessness, brutality, doom, panic, dysfunction, and balkanization, plus "semi-failed state". Which sounds as if someone else is anticipating a Crisis, too.  It's a surprisingly bleak view of the political future, even for those who might want to see the existing system made obsolete. 

I would argue that Cantor’s defeat is bad news for both parties and for the stagnant system they represent. If anything, it may signify a nascent or immanent threat to that system.

This is not a piece about where Cantor went wrong, but about how the political system went wrong, is showing its age, and may shortly be replaced.

Cantor’s downfall was the inevitable result of a systemic malfunction, and not an unrepeatable anomaly stemming from low turnout or a single-issue voter meltdown.

If this is "not...unrepeatable," similarly unexpected major changes could occur again.  A system that has unexpected major changes, though, is one which is not stable, and ultimately not usable.  And the end state for a process to improve (or enable) stability is not easily inferred. Considering that end state in terms of the recently released The Rover:

In his imaginary future there are still cars and electricity, still a cash economy of sorts, and some kind of a vestigial state making a feeble effort to keep the peace. Freight trains pass through, covered with Chinese characters and protected by heavily armed guards. It’s more like a recognizable end point for current trends than a total destruction of civilization.

Which is a helpful reminder that there isn't any guarantee about where the Crisis could end up. 

Hiccup

As previously noted, Hero stories often revolve around teamwork and sacrifice. Even when those aspects are obvious, other details can still find ways to be surprising.

In How to Train Your Dragon, it starts out as a young man who isn’t sure what his place is, not quite fitting in a world that has Always Been This Way. His different view of the world is tolerated at the start, even if nobody really agrees with him on it. That perspective then gains him a lucky break, and a chance to learn about dragons in a way nobody else has. And slowly - without even realizing it himself, at first - Hiccup begins changing the world around him, eventually transforming it completely.

All of which are more subtle attributes of a Hero’s tale, ones that aren’t always discernible.  It takes a little while for the teamwork aspects to lock in - Hiccup is the outsider for most of the film. And there is a moment at the end when it appears he will triumph without sacrifice. While he falls from a great height, there’s no real worry that the hero of an animated children's film will not survive the Final Conflict. One might even start thinking that it will turn into just another Disney Death, without meaningful consequence, there only to tug the heartstrings.

And, in fact, he does survive...but not unscathed. Moments later we find out that, like Toothless, he has lost a limb - enough to link them fully as survivors and fellow Heroes. 

Crazy

Perhaps this is one of those times just to say: It’s one crazy day:

Iraq is under attack by militants who clearly don't watch Archer. 

And now Iran is coming to their rescue. Which is not quite what one would expect considering their history.

Tesla - which may be a popular stock that has done well over the last year, but it's still a manufacturing company with some need to protect its place in the market - allows anyone to use their patents. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

Judge outlaws tenure for teachers. Whom at last check were the only people who ever had tenure in the first place.

George H.W. Bush celebrates his 90th birthday by jumping out of a plane (again). 
And then Putin congratulates the other guy. (And it is a little weird, isn't it, to see him using the double-headed eagle?)

An incomprehensible story about what local police are able to say about surveillance technology the federal government uses.

In Brazil, where futbol is a religion, the World Cup is starting so it’s time for... protests. Which appear to be well deserved.

Plus other reminders of the last time the World Cup was in the United States.

Some days it's difficult to find something to post about, and other days it's difficult to choose....

Loman

Was Arthur Miller (1915, GI Generation) making a point about Willy Loman's go-it-alone stance, versus the all-for-one attributes of Miller's generation? Willy is a salesman - a Nomad in more than one sense -  intentionally out on his own, not setting up support back home and ultimately not having any. There's some indication - in the fates of his brother and father - that it is possible to live, even thrive, that way. Even those "success" stories, though, are tinged with vice, not quite the right way to get through life.

It's surprising that Death of a Salesman was so successful in 1949 - an indictment of the American Dream only a few years after victory over Germany and Japan. The war is hardly even in the background, and clearly any post-war exuberance is long gone. (While it's not always the case that a story is set in the time when it is first published, the original Playbill indicates that it is set "today.") Some of it feels like the Depression, even if the apartments hemming in the house sound like more of a boom time.

Which appears to have been answered - or at least addressed - by Mr. Miller in an interview in 1998:

...that play was written in 1948, when we were starting the biggest boom in the history of the United States. However, a good part of the population, including me and President Truman, were prepared for another depression. We had only escaped the first depression by the advent of war. It was, I think, a year and a half into the war before we absorbed all the unemployed; therefore, what were all these young guys going to do when they came home? There had to be another crisis. [...]

Salesman appeared in '49 in a country already starting to prosper, and to take a completely unforeseen path. The psychology of the audience was still that of depression people. The depression had only ended maybe ten years earlier, and people were on very shaky ground for the following ten years because of the war and the uncertainty as to how the country and the economy were going to go. [...]  I kept being surprised by Biff's reference to being at war because it seemed to me later that this play had taken place before the war.

And it's not like there was only puppy dogs and flowers immediately after the war. The Hollywood Ten had been brought before Congress two years before Salesman opened. Lee J. Cobb, who first played Loman, would be before the HUAC two years later, and director Elia Kazan a year after that. Miller would eventually be there, too, and cited for contempt of Congress for refusing to name names - but not before writing The Crucible, about a similar frenzy in an earlier post-war period

Cantor

After seeing that Eric Cantor had been primaried by a Tea Party candidate, it certainly seemed like a big deal - articles referred to it as an “earthquake,” a “volcano.” It reminded me of when Tip O’Neill was taken out in 1994, and I was going to make a comment about how rare it is that such a major change happens, and here it is 20 years later.

Well, to start, my memory is clearly flawed. Tip O’Neill retired in 1987, and was not  electorally otherwise defeated, in either a primary or general election. It was Democratic Speaker Tom Foley who was defeated in the 1994 election, which resulted in Newt Gingrich being the first Republican speaker in 40 years. And considering Cantor is House Majority Leader, not Speaker, it’s not quite as significant.  The Speaker won’t change, excepting the very unlikely case of the Republicans losing big in the fall. There will still be a House Majority leader - just not Cantor.  

The most telling note to me, though, was in this article, where the author cannot even FIND an earlier example of a loss in the primary by a Majority leader. Maybe it is a big deal. 

In any case, seems a fine and appropriate time to pull out this well-worn quote:

In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. It could be a rapid succession of small events in which the ominous, the ordinary and the trivial are commingled.

The Fourth Turning (1997), Chapter 10 

Machine

A quick one today, a minor prediction success:

... All the accumulations of the last three minutes burst in on her. The room was filled with the noise of bells and speaking tubes. What was the new food like? Could she recommend it? Had she any ideas lately? Might one tell her one’s own ideas? 

The Machine Stops, E.M. Forster

In this story, the titular Machine connects the members of civilized humanity, most of whom never leave their small, hexagonal rooms - and never want to. The Machine delivers food, handles hygienic matters (baths are particularly mentioned) and allows people to connect to all their friends, nearby or around the world. Not that any of these folks pay attention to something like distance, when the Machine keeps them together. In fact....

"You know that we have lost the sense of space. We say “Space is annihliated, but we annihilated not space, but the sense thereof.....‘Near’ is a place to which I can get quickly on my feet...‘Far’ is a place to which I cannot get quickly on my feet."

The focus is on a woman who gives lectures on music - evidently not on playing music, nor listening to it, but simply on ideas about music. This focus on ideas makes her much like the rest of the civilized world, which is connected through the Machine and talks one to another about what they know and what ideas they have. Her son  - who considers "space" as described above - decides to go beyond the boundaries that the Machine guards Supposedly to go onto the surface of the earth is deadly, but he pursues that goal because of his doubts about the Machine-led society. 

All of that is a lot to mention for a simple prediction, while not nearly enough to really describe the story. In any case, there is a focus on individualism that makes it seem very much a part of a Third Turning. The mother on her own, the son attempting to escape, the interactions that strive neither for conformity nor opposition nor destruction...And it turns out that it was published in 1909, after the Progressive Era, before the Great Depression. Which works.

Criminal

There’s a recent article about a woman who committed the unimaginable crime of leaving a four-year-old boy in a car while she went into a store.

On a cool day. 

For five full minutes. 

And it ended as such events usually do: With her returning to her car at the end of five minutes to find that her son was perfectly fine.

Soon after, though, she was charged with contributing to the delinquency of a minor. Because someone saw what happened, recorded a video of the tablet-tapping boy, and sent it to the police.

Whether she should have done so. However, it turns out this relates to an important driver of the model - although one with influence that isn't always significant enough to mention. Over the course of the Saeculum, child-raising goes through its own repeating cycle. During the Crisis, children have to be protected. After the various threats are combatted and resolved, protection becomes less important, and so restrictions begin loosening. As the Awakening arrives, with its inward-focused concerns,  child-nurturing hits its least-restrictive point.  During the Unraveling, children being moving from devil-child inconveniences to important guardians of the future - guardians who must be guided and, yes, protected. 

What happened to this lady, then, is expected - and might not be the worst it could become. (Even now, not everyone is going to side with her on this: There are those who will think the risk she took WAS too significant.) The Fourth Turning is at most 6 years old, with probably 15 more years to go, and people will be MORE protective when it peaks, perhaps in 10 years. Although if the peak turns out to be about excessive intrusion, and overhauling how government works, it may be that, protective or not, getting the police involved will not be an unacceptable response.  

Markets

On November 9, 1989, the people of Berlin joyously tore down the wall that for thirty years had divided their city. As the wall fell, so did communism and the planned economy. On April 30, 1995, the U.S. government ceased controlling the Internet. As entrepreneurs devised procedures for online buying and selling, electronic commerce burgeoned. These two dates denote the beginning of what has become, for good or ill, the age of the market.

John McMillan, Reinventing the Bazaar, 2002 (p. 4)

Both dates are well into the Third Turning, the time of individual freedom.  Not really a surprise.

Reinventing the Bazaar: A Natural History of Markets is a very good introduction on what markets are and what they require to operate properly. The "reinventing" part is an acknowledgement that markets are created in all sorts of ways for all sorts of reasons, even if all their forms have fundamental similarities to the bazaars where people buy food, trinkets, clothes.

For a deeper look, seek out Markets and Hierarchies by Oliver Williamson, which compares markets with another way for processing information: Instead of everyone getting information on actual value from prices, one person makes a decision based on the information available, then requires others to follow that decision - to allow that one person to be in charge. In the market, that is, every individual makes their decision on their own; the hierarchy, decisions are made by a leader. (Both options have their advantages in particular areas.)

Which, if it wasn't clear, was why it makes sense that "the age of the market" started in the Third Turning, the time of greatest individual freedom.

Normandy

The invasion of Normandy was 70 years ago. A round number is not normally enough on its own for any anniversary to matter, really. Not that it stops anyone who has an interest in reporting on it.

This year, some survivors of that long-ago day are disbanding. And while one might be tempted to say it's too bad, and wonder why they feel the need to do so, well,  this is where those round numbers can be helpful. Those who went ashore on Omaha, Utah, Sword, Gold, and Juno were young men, in some cases as young as 18. Seventy years later, those very youngest are now 88, with comrades 90, 93, older still. When the next round number comes along, it’s unlikely that any of them will still be around. Sure, people live to be a hundred, more these days than usual, but there‘s certainly no guarantee that any one of five men 89 and older will still be here in 2024. Better to hang it up this year than another, or to possibly have a year when nobody will be able to say “I lay me down with a will!”

And so, they are hanging up their banner, in a ceremony at Westminister Cathedral, acknowledging that their time as a group is just about complete. (Not unlike the previously mentioned Lost Generation, whose only living members today are a very few women centenarians. )   

One of the useful results of understanding history better is the ability to recognize what is really near and far. Getting older naturally gives one a better feel for that, of recognizing how long ten years really is. It can be the time between Black Monday and the start of World War II.  When very young, it's a lifetime; later on, it's a blink. 

Maleficent

It's the age of the anti-hero -- critically acclaimed shows focus on people like Don Draper and Nucky Thompson, exploring the lives of drug dealers on Breaking Bad and Weeds. Even the superheroes are arms dealers, vigilantes, or have serious anger management issues.

Early on in Generations, the point is made that "devil child" movies first appeared with Generation X - Rosemary's Baby (1968) being an early example, followed by The Exorcist (1973), The Omen (1976), and others. Firestarter and Children of the Corn (both 1984) are given as a point where it ended, as the Millennials were being born, implying that children were again seen as a good thing. But for the Xers themselves it continued apace, with representatives like the high school gangs of Class of 1984 and the teen vampires of The Lost Boys (1987).

And then, then they pull out Maleficent, a full-on villain who threatens a baby girl with death because she wasn't invited to the christening.  No anti-heroics here: She crashes the party, pronounces a curse, ensures it takes place, and eventually turns into a dragon that breathes green flame.

Although I understand this more recent film is trying to show her own goals and motivations.

In any case,  she's played by the lady who is arguably Generation X's biggest (female) movie star.


Which suggests there's a time to accept that some generations get to play the good guys,.. and others just don't.

At some point, decisions will be made that will make anti-heroes (and villains) less ubiquitous on television and in the movies. They will probably be replaced by more intentionally heroic people, who will be placed in situations where there isn't a good response, at least not without sacrificing something dear.. But that probably won't be soon.

Murder

Leopold and Loeb aren’t especially well-remembered any more. Not that they should be, considering the reason for what fame they had. They had a quick reference in Annie Hall, although comprehending it would probably require a re-reading of Beyond the Pleasure Principle.  “Rope” - one of the lost Hitchcocks that was made available for wide release in 1983 - was inspired by their story. One surprising thing is that they were Civics, the “good kids” of the Saeculum -  stories of “bad kids” are usually about Reactives. Perhaps the significant distinction is that Reactives are the pragmatic ones, and so require an actual reason to consider killing someone else - more than, say, just to find out what it’s like, or to commit a perfect crime. 

They are in mind, of course, because of the Slenderman stabbing.  Again, here are Civics who engaged in activity contemptuous of human life, for no reason worthy of the name.  Additional parallels are clear and easily found, if desired. Feel free to seek them out. 

It’s certainly worth noting that killers are not specific to any generation, and murder happens in every turning.  There's nothing special about Civics that makes this more likely. (One could point to the Heavenly Creatures murder, for example, even if the similarities there seem more superficial.) 

Still, some echoes seem to have stronger returns than others.

(Heroes and Nomads were called Civics and Reactives when the theory was first proposed in the book Generations.  That first term isn't well suited to a post such as this, though.)

XKCD

I really really thought that XKCD was done by a Gen Xer - maybe not quite my age, maybe born mid- or late-70s. But, no: Randall Munroe is  a full-on Millennial, born 1984.

Here's what I first saw - he looks REALLY young. But it is from a few years ago.  

 Here's a more recent one:

 


Why did I think so? And what does that say?

One option, of course - and which Randall himself might prefer - is that this generational thing doesn’t really work. You might find a couple of matches here and there, but usually where you were looking for them. The big mismatches, meanwhile, would be discounted or not mentioned.

Fine, I’m here mentioning it, and acknowledging the faulty prediction. (I may yet discount it, though, which you’ll just have to deal with.) What was it, though, that made me think of a connection to this Nomad archetype? 

For no particular reason, at least none related to this model. I rethought my earlier thoughts, and ended up with:

• Because XKCD is mature and philosophical in a way that does not seem youthful.
• Because XKCD knows so MUCH it feels like the work of someone with more experience.
• Because the cancer sequences imply a certain age - it's not common for someone in their 20s.

That is, I was making inferences based on other criteria, none of which were directly related to the generational archetypes. Similarly, it can be easy to start making guesses based on things like whether or not someone was alive during The War, and skip the important questions of how old they were and what their involvement may have been. Sometimes your biases are subconscious, not the result of invoking intended theories. Still something to watch out for. 

Pseudoscience

“...Is it crackpot?”

John Holland, remembering questions about his early research into genetic algorithms and adaptive systems.

I’ve been a little nervous since posting links to rationality sites from a blog that is not nearly as hard-science. Or even very soft science. Indeed, it can sometimes seem like nothing more than horoscopes and apophenia. So let it be noted that I’m aware of this, and doing what I can to toughen it up a bit.

One of the biggest dangers in a model such as this is confirmation bias: You look for situations that match, and ignore ones that don’t.  Soon you start seeing the theory working for EVERYthing, because you aren’t paying attention to the times it doesn’t.

 I am trying to avoid that by

1) Being aware of the possibility 

2) Bringing up alternatives where possible and 

3) Calling back to failures in predictions.

Bias can lead you down dark paths. With the Ahab post from the other day, I was so certain that Melville was a Nomad that I started setting up the post with a comparison between him and Mark Twain.  I pivoted quickly to him as a Prophet instead, and could have gone on for a bit how of COURSE Ahab is a Prophet, just like Melville...and that after having to justify Ahab as a Prophet when one of my first calculations ended up with him as an Artist. Which at least is a reminder to be cautious about finding where things match, instead of where they don’t.

Generally, in fact, I’m less convinced of the personality aspects of this model, at least as applied to individuals. While the Assertions in my recent post on how the model works allude to common traits, I prefer not to get too bogged down in what those might be. The historical aspects don’t have quite the same tendency to get caught in parsing out differences between “ruthless” and “amoral” or “rational” versus “practical.”

Nonetheless, some folks seem to be doing well identifying current and ongoing trends based on generational personality profiles.  And to the extent that is tied closely to the rest of the model, some acknowledgement must be given. It’s still possible this is the perfectly natural tendency to find order in chaos. That the model is explained as tied to basic human aspects makes me think that it will ultimately be shown correct.

Andreesen

Marc Andreesen recorded an interview with the Hoover Institution a couple of weeks ago. A couple of items stuck out:

A) “By the end of the decade, everyone on the planet will have a smartphone.” The end of the decade happens to be the year 2020, which is when the peak of the Crisis is predicted to start. Not that there’s any reason to think that the Crisis will be about ubiquitous Internet access, but however it might come to pass, the ability of ANY person to easily answer ANY known question is likely to affect how it all plays out.

B) Marc discusses Bitcoin, and its status as a currently available cryptocurrency, a concept that has been around - and continuously improving under strong incentives - for about 20 years. (An interview with the Washington Post covers similar points.) 

The Great Simolean Caper was a 1995 Neal Stephenson story about a future where different cryptocurrencies are competing for acceptance. When the government attempts to subvert them, a group of “crypto-anarchists” help the protagonist fight back. All of which fits with a Third Turning perspective of strong individuals and weak institutions: crypto-currencies are a way to enforce freedoms and ensure that they will  be continued.  

As the Fourth continues, though, individual freedoms become less important in the face of more significant dangers.  As government and other institutions grow in strength, technologies like Bitcoin that are potentially useful  - and/or dangerous - could be taken over.  And likely will be.