- In January, they were clearly in their Awakening as they root out corruption and try to remake their government. (Yes to the latter, maybe not 100% to the former.)
- In March, the Crimea was being a problem, but wasn't going to turn into a major issue. (Which it hasn't,except as it has led to larger problems.)
- In March two days later, things were looking worse, but it still wasn't going to be a problem. (Ditto.)
- In May, some comparisons to the Axis Powers, but by all indications the U.S. was not about to get involved. And it didn't.
Today, there is the shoot down of Malaysia Flight 17 (Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur) over the Ukraine, which is getting some people riled up about responses. However, unless the Dutch or Malaysians are willing to invade on that pretext, it is unlikely to be enough to convince any country to step into this mess. The Russians are powerful enough to hold back any direct military response, and they haven't been concerned about . If the U.S. wasn't going to get involved in KAL 007 - in which a literal government Representative was killed - there's no chance of it happening today.
Which doesn't mean it won't make a difference. It's only because it is indeed happening here in the Fourth that anyone has any actual concerns over What's Next. More likely, this is the peak of this crisis, the point where the antagonists realize that they have much more to lose than to win. Flight 007 was years before the end of the Cold War, but in its own way it showed a chink in Soviet armor, of insecurity and fallibility and willful gamesmanship in a dangerous world. A few years later, the guided missile cruiser Vincennes shot down an Iranian Air passenger flight. Although there's no definite link except the timing, it did seem as if it gave both sides an excuse to end the Iran-Iraq war. Perhaps something similar will happen here.
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