Caesar

One of the useful attributes of generational theory is seeing extreme change as a natural part of history, and by extension of everyday life. 

Without it, it would seem ridiculous to suggest that the United States is entering a new civil war, or that the next two or four or eight years could be as bad as World War II. Instead, these declarations are backed up by a half-dozen year of posts on related topics; a decade of pushing this theory on anyone who will listen; and a twenty-five-year-old book that has forecast much of what has happened since it was published. 

Twenty-five years ago, the idea that the next president of the United States would be its last was extreme. Now, well, it’s a possibility.

Which is all prologue, a way to point out that this isn’t intended as hyperbole, or demonization. It’s just how history is working out.

I realized a couple of weeks ago that Rome was headed for an emperor no matter what the Senate did to Julius Caesar. 

Rather than stabbing him, the conspiratorial senators might have decided that he wasn’t that dangerous. Perhaps the people who supported him, the faction known as the populares, would have some well-earned but short-term success. Maybe change was necessary, and would have to be endured one way or another. They would let him be dictator (not an epithet, at the time, but a temporary state, done in a legal and aboveboard manner), and perhaps the crisis would pass when he did. The Republic of Rome had lasted a long time, and there was no reason to think that a single man, even one as great as Julius Caesar, could overcome it.

That progression doesn’t seem likely to have occurred to the Senators, though. Caesar had already crossed the Rubicon, bringing the military directly into the city of Rome, so there was no reason to think he would step back from any future obstacle.  Clearly Brutus and the other conspirators thought assassination the only option. They even tried to be open about it, saying with word and deed they were acting for the good of Rome and its people. 

Nonetheless, the result was two decades of war that spread across the provinces, with power instead ending up in the hands of Gaius Octavius, later known as Caesar Augustus, now recognized as the first Roman Emperor. Attempting to prevent an emperor helped to guarantee that one took power.  At this late date, it seems clear that the tides of power were heading in a very particular way, and that Caesar was the end result regardless of the actions of a few individuals.  

That realization was the point at which changing the outcome of the most recent election, using trivial means like the humans in the Electoral College,  seemed pointless. The United States appears headed in a similar direction, and no localized action is about to change the outcome.

Consider the possibilities if Clinton had won the election. Swaths of the nation find her reprehensible, consider her an incompetent liar at best, a traitor to the country at worst. With a likely Republican Congress, there was talk of impeachment before the election was near over. Ways to impede her ability to govern as Chief Executive were under discussion, As uncertain as the Trump transition has been, there’s little to suggest that a Clinton victory would have been a real improvement. Division would still have been rampant, enough to push the country in a very similar direction. The timing might have changed. It might not.

The current path of the United States was probably set well before November 8. It might have been determined when the financial market collapsed, and probably made sure when the institutions that caused it were left unfixed. The tendency of those in charge to force through changes, to use the letter more than the spirit of the law, probably led here as well. Maybe it would have turned out differently if the Democrats had allowed Sanders a fairer shot at the nomination, or the Republicans had forced Trump to release his tax returns. 

But the constitution begins with "We the People,” and that’s who must take responsibility for whatever happens next, too. Certainly a near-majority of the people don’t consider a unified Republican Government a bad thing. Whether you support Trump, are "giving him a chance," or consider him a danger to our Republic, he’s our prize.  We’ve all earned him one way or another.  If you voted for him, or cheered on obstructionism for the sake of obstructing, or celebrated Obama expanding the powers of the executive branch, what happens next is on us all. 

Maybe, just maybe, there's the possibility that we will recognize that we all can't get what we want. Those on the left might have to accept the limitations of government as a way to fix the world. The right may need to acknowledge that their economic policies have a very mixed record. As a country, we will have to find a way to make different views of society work together. Maybe we'll manage it with minimal upheaval.

But don't count on it.