Confusion

If we accept that Second Turnings are very confusing periods when trying to comprehend them later, we might also recognize that they are confusing at the time.

If we accept that Russia and Ukraine are entering a Second Turning, we could then expect that right now is very confusing there. It's not an illusion or bounded rationality that is making it confusing: it IS a confusing place to be. 

This comes to mind while trying to understand what is happening there these days.

"Your strength as a rationalist is your ability to be more confused by fiction than reality." If that's the case, what's the fiction here? Is it that the West is attacking Russia or that Russia is defending herself? In either case it may be worthwhile to take a moment, acknowledge the confusion, and consider the sort of period enveloping that corner of the world.