Thursday, December 18, 2014

Frack

Strauss & Howe originally referred to it as the "Crisis of 2020." That was the initial estimate for the peak of the current crisis, as predicted in 1992.

When that date shows up unrequested, it's worth taking a second look. Especially when it happens to appear with words like "crisis" or "collapse" or "cloverfield." 

The original article describing the collapse of fracking around 2020 is on pbs.org, but it's mostly based on an article in Nature. An estimate by the Energy Information Association has natural gas production from fracturing shale growing until 2040, then flattening out. A separate estimate from the University of Texas at Austin, on the other hand, suggests that 2020 is a more likely date for production to plateau. The difference could mean that one estimate is too conservative. It could also result in more dependence built on natural gas than is sustainable.

(Not that this is likely to really be THE peak of the Crisis, although it could feed into whatever economic situations occur.)

There are enough different numbers there that it brings to mind the (yes) collapse of the Grand Banks fishery. There were estimates that said the cod schools there were very robust, except some that said they might be in trouble. It was a lot easier to keep fishing based on the good reports than to reduce based on the bad ones. This worked well enough until supplies collapsed so completely that in 1992 a moratorium on fishing had to be declared - one that continues to this day.


No comments:

Post a Comment