Bias

Been a while since a proper anti-positive-bias post, so here’s one on previous speculation concerning Total Factor Productivity. I conjectured that it was higher in the 3rd and 4th turning - going along with personal freedom, which peaks in the former and begins decreasing in the latter. 

According to this tome, however, TFP increased massively from the Roaring 20s to World War II. It was still inordinately high until roughly 1973. After that, it was stagnant until 1990. Since then, it has moved higher again, but nothing like the early part of the last century. If anything, in fact, it’s LOWEST during the Third Turning - both 1900-1920 and 1973-1990 are low, and low TFP hangs over onto the Second as well. 

Worth keeping in mind, also, that "1973" can be an indicator of an unusual year when speaking of economics: The year that the oil, uh, crisis happened.  Productivity dropped as people had to figure where they would get gas for their cars....