Sunday, February 9, 2014

Possibilities

Easy enough - or not - to find echoes of the Crisis in what happens every day. The most interesting part - as in , of most interest - is the possibility of predicting what happens next. The big Next, that is. The peak of the Crisis. Which, by all previous indications, is likely to be a War. Not Iraq, or Kuwait, or Eldorado Canyon, or Vietnam nor Korea. One that inherits all resources it can and remakes the world. What will it be?

Predictions should start from some basic assumptions, say:
  • It needs to fit the Crisis criteria in terms of impact and focus. Naturally.
  • It should be possible to see parallels from previous Saeculums (Saeculae?), not only in the peak itself, but in how the threads leading there occurred.
  • Roots of the peak should be visible in the Awakening, as The Liberator was for the Civil War. Perhaps not that obvious, but should be identifiable by,say, now.
  • As the potential starting point for the peak approaches, the list of options should become shorter. Some possibilities will no longer evoke “Crisis” events, others will not have time to ripen by the latest possible peak dates
Not that I would start from these to identify peak candidates, usually. I look at what is happening in the world, try to see what could occur over the next 10 years, and assess from there. A wide-cast net would yield the following (with clever nicknames of my own devising):
  1. The Last Crusade: In response to ongoing terrorism and threats, the U.S. and other countries begin a campaign of eradication aimed at militant Islam. 
  2. Civil War II: Federal interference in personal and/or state matters results in threats of secession, which are handled by a Federal government unwilling to buckle on its own principles. 
  3. The China Syndrome: The polite diplomatics of the current U.S.-China political reality falls apart - perhaps over Taiwan, perhaps trade issues. (“Made in China” is a problem for some people, even now....)
For the first, the parallels are with Germany in World War I (9/11 being the equivelent of the Lusitania) and the roots are in the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Iranian Revolution. The second is obviously expecting the Civil War to be refought, with roots that can be seen in Goldwater running for President, Reagan being elected 16 years later, and anti-establishment rhetoric of the 1960s. For the third, China appears to be the only country that could seriously challenge U.S. warfighting capabilities, fulfilling that main requirement of matching up with the Crisis criteria.


The above are the most likely I can see.There are others (the China one, but with Russia, say). I’m open to alternative opinions.

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