Strauss & Howe set up a theory (or model) of history that includes the following structures:
There's a 80-100 year cycle called the Saeculum. The current ("Millennial") Saeculum started after the end of World War II, and will be concluding in about 10-15 years.
Within the Saeculum, there are 20-25 year sub-cycles called Turnings. Looking back through history, we see them repeating, in the same order, going back at least 500 years.
- First Turning - High - exuberance and exceptionalism; conformity and corruption - most recent: 1946-1963
- Second Turning - Awakening - spirituality and hope; hypocrisy and disappointment - most recent: 1964-1984
- Third Turning - Unraveling - freedom and opportunity; uncertainty and fear - 1985-2007?
- Fourth Turning - Crisis - excitement and creation ; war and destruction; previously 1929-1945, but also our current turning: 2008?-2030?
People born during a given Turning experience many of the same historical events around the same period of their lives, giving them broadly similar outlooks. These cohorts are called Generations, and each is associated with the following Archetypes and Turnings:
Prophet - raised during High - “Boomers” - Current ages: 53-70 years
Nomad - raised during Awakening - “Generation X” - 33-52 years
Hero - raised during Unraveling - mostly “Millennials” 8-32, a few GI Generation > 87 years
Artist - raised during Crisis - “Homelanders” < 8 and “Silent” 71-86 years
The recurring cycles of generations help reinforce and perpetuate the Turnings, and vice-versa. The repeating nature means that we can expect, for example, a High to begin in the late 2020s, bringing both positives (new exploration!) and negatives (metaphorical (generally) witch hunts. Sooner than that, of course, we can similarly predict a massive war as part of the Crisis.
But if you are here, you must have known that already.
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