Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Timing

If you had Predicted a few years ago that the Crisis would be about environmental issues in general and climate change in particular, you might have Planned to purchase green stocks - solar power, wave power, various profit pools regarding electric cars. If you waited until last year to do this, it may have worked out well. If you did that around, say, 2010, you may already be reconsidering the value of your predictions.  

It may yet be true, though, that you were right. There are cases to be made that militant Islam has already been  defeated, and that the REAL danger to the nation is to be found in ocean level rise, extreme weather, invasive species, et cetera. With the additional note that militant Islam gets much of its money from fossil fuels, so a blow against one strikes the other as well. Beyond the prediction and the plan, there is another factor that will affect how effective your actions might be.

Consider from a future where your prediction is right: what ELSE had to go right for you to survive, succeed, exceed expectations? First, as seen, you had to predict your best choices. Would any green stock have worked? Clearly not: Plenty have gone bankrupt even since 2010, while a few have done remarkably well.  The latter ones, we could expect, would have other important features: A fine product, a well-defended strategic , an excellent management team - and preferably all three. Which comes back, again, to not only predicting but planning well. 


It may be less obvious that you also need to execute them at the correct time. Considering that as well, it really is a part of planning, too. (And possibly the important part for these Predictions.) For projects in, say, a workplace setting, timing is often not an issue: you do them as soon as you can, you check if they have a positive present value, you depend on them having a similar value a few months ahead or behind  the day you put your money down. It might be that most planning here has the profile of an investment, where the present value can change radically, dependent not only the What is that you are doing, but the When.

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