Tesla

This is a straight financial post, although it does tie to the Total Factor Productivity discussions earlier, plus the Green Power discussion on Predictions.   

Holding Tesla stock is tricky, as it has been solidly up for over a year now - although during that time it went from below 100 to over 200 to below 150 to almost 250 today. My plan is to stick with it because it is positioned to work with several areas of the potential electric car market  

-- Cars. They make cars, sell them for large amounts of money, and have a backlog of people wishing to purchase more. 

-- Batteries. Perhaps the better place to be is in selling batteries that can be used in cars. If those batteries could be usable in ANY car - and there was some protection from others entering what is now a commodity market - it could be a place to make money regardless of who makes the rest of the car. Plus, the ability to do battery swaps automatically could be the equivalent of being Standard Oil in the 21st century.

-- Supercharger : if nothing else, Tesla has a network of (working and in-use) charging stations that could be leveraged to work with future electric cars, regardless of make. Although non-Tesla cars will probably need to pay for the privilege. 

-- Cars 2: Consumer Reports notes the impressive integration between car and computer. Redoing the user interface for cars could be a high margin area if complete cars turn out to be problematic.

The Fourth Turning is a place where fortunes change overnight. Tesla continues to push its brand, its vehicles, and its vision. It looks like a good bet to continue being impressive for some time to come. It’s tempting to go Bear on it, or at least to expect this to be a high-water mark. Not today, though.