Crimea

The situation in the Ukraine seems to be more in flux than before. It’s either Munich all over again, Waterloo all over again, a huge incident that isn't quite the same, or none of the above.  

Let’s try an actual prediction here, though: As both Ukraine and Russia are in their Second Turning,  it feels like this cannot get out of hand. It's going to remain internal. Putin won't overreach because uncertainty at home means he can't risk further destabilization. Sending troops only to Crimea means its justifiable for protection and not excessive in world opinion. Sure, there will be a UN resolution condemning it, but no NATO invasion plans.  Ukraine will accept the current situation because they have little choice. They will have to play a longer game to retrieve what was lost - like a Northern Ireland situation.  

Which is likely just what will be there soon. An external protection force watching out for a local majority that’s an overall minority. Cut off except by boat and plane, said force has limitations on its ability to move tactically. The locals will be taking advantage of the embedded force to attack asymmetrically until the situation resolves itself. If that happens, with history as our guide, resolution will take decades. (And probably still won't matter that much to the U.S.)