Friday, March 14, 2014

Third

The Third Turning can be conspicuous by its absence. It is often quickly skipped over in history class, as it doesn't have events that fit the usual flow. Since it's after the end of the Second, institutions have been weakened, attacked, even torn down. Personal freedom moves to its highest point, and people make use of it. That makes it difficult to set up a cohesive narrative. 

One can talk about the Civil War in terms of North and South: “The South wanted to keep slavery so it set up ways for it to expand but Republicans were elected by Northern states on a keep-it-contained platform so then the South seceded.” Similar descriptions about “The Colonists and Great Britain,” “The Protestants and the Catholics,” “The Axis and the Allies” can be used for other Crisis periods.  Institutions are at their strongest, then, so it makes sense to talk in terms of Japan and America rather than, say, Hirohito and Roosevelt. During the Third, when institutions are weak and social structures are in disarray, individuals start poking out more. From 1992-1996, American political discourse was more often about “Clinton and Gingrich” than “Democrats and Republicans.” With more actors on the stage, the plots become more fragmented and harder to tie together. From 1929 to 1945 can be effectively summarized as “The Great Depression and World War II.” while 1989 to 2005 would miss a lot if described as “The end of the Cold War and the rise of the Internet and the Gulf War’s role in the increase of militant Islam lead to invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan.” (And even that one isn’t unified at all.)

The way around this is to embrace the individualism inherent in the period. How three guys influenced film says a lot about what was happening in the mid-Nineties. Isaac Newton singlehandedly changed physics, astronomy, and mathematics. Everyone remembers the one guy who crossed the Atlantic on his own. Stop trying to make sense of anything but the fact that people have an exceptional amount of freedom...for a little while. 


In the Third Turning, it's  also common to see "vibrant" economies: The dot-com era. The Roaring Twenties. The Forty-Niners. People can make a lot of money if they get in early enough, and people try. Still, the fortunes made aren't always as real as they look. It’s an interesting time, if you know where you are and what to look for.

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