Unshocked

Yesterday's post was about when and why "shocking" happens -- that outside of the Second and Third Turnings, it hardly happens at all. Examples were given. 

It's worth considering, though,  that the second and third turnings comprise 50% of all time. Is it that big a deal if most of the shocking events are in that half? From a straight statistical perspective, it actually is. This isn't "40% of sick days are on Mondays and Fridays" but "75% of shocking moments are in 50% of the time." The former is trivial to show as statistically meaningless, the latter very significant. 

Assuming you have rigorously defined "shocking" and looked at a large enough universe to justify that 75%, that is.

However, there is another option that fits the evidence: Reactives might just be past being shocked. Or not paying attention to what is shocking.

Perhaps. Almost all of the items from yesterday's post were from the last 50 years. Is there anything from previous Turnings to support this Second/Third assertion?

Well, from that linked to article are the following items:

 Un Chien Andalou - 1929 

 Duchamp's Nude Descending a Staircase No. 2 - 1912
 Lady Chatterly's Lover - 1928

Stravinsky's The Riot, er, Rite of Spring - 1913

(Plus several more from 1963-2000 that weren't mentioned yesterday.)

In short, almost everything there is from either the Second or Third of the current or previous Saeculum. The only definite exception is "Un Chien Andalou": 1929 starts the Fourth Turning, so it's (barely) off. While there are mentions of recent  (i.e. in the current Fourth) offensive plays, part of the point of the article appears to be "But nobody seems shocked about them, really."

Before that - well, there's at least Fanny Hill, which fits the pattern a few saeculums back (it was published in 1748). Shakespeare was active from the end of the Armada Crisis and into the subsequent First, and his legacy is in his writing skills, not his shock value.

9/11 was shocking, which perhaps proves more that we were in a Third at that point. If MH370 was to come barreling out of the sky into the U.S. Capitol, it might cause outrage but not shock - people would believe such a thing could happen, as something similar has happened before.  JFK's assassination, on the other hand, was unbelievable, and knocked the nation back.  Maybe it was an important transition because it was shocking. Or vice versa.