Surrender

Two whole days later, is that prediction on the Crimea already a loser?

Problem one is the vagueness of “won’t get out of hand,” that being the main declaration of said prediction. Although there was also an admission of no NATO invasion plans, so that, at least, is a hard high limit. No problem inferring that to mean “no individual major members of NATO, either,” for anyone keeping score. Really, though, the rest of the post places some reasonable expectations and restrictions on What It Means.

Still, it’s starting to look a little out of hand to the casual observer. While there may be nothing at all to the more interesting rumors (“Russia tells Ukraine military to surrender”), the scope of the takeover is significant. One can imagine this as a powder keg, waiting for a spark. It’s not easy to imagine how big the explosion would be. Although...it might not be much. 

As previously noted, large-scale pacification isn’t an option for the Russians. (No special or definite knowledge on that, simply the recognition that Ukraine is big, the Russian Army trying to keep things under control in the Caucasus, and the start of this was Ukrainian nationalism that seems to be growing rather than fading.) If they invade, they are likely to end up with enough army there to be attacked, not enough to effectively defend. That leads to plenty of uncomfortable situations.

Then there’s the economic impact. My portfolio had a lot of red today, evenly distributed - or mostly so, since it was up by the end of the day, if not hugely so. Ukraine’s stock market took a big hit, but so did the Russian one - whatever happens, those in a position to care don’t seem to consider this an unalloyed win for Russia. Getting into wars with your neighbors costs money and resources, which can get people nervous about your long-term plans -- or lack of same.

Which is another reminder that Putin isn’t necessarily a mastermind. He may be playing multi-dimensional chess, although he may also be focused on the Power in Power Politics. Perhaps his "brilliant" planning is simply the best he can do at this point. Perhaps he is still dreaming of Imperial Russia -- perhaps the Crimean situation is an emotional response that is working only because he has more resources to put on the table.  Even smart people do stupid things. 

Those thoughts will start occurring to the occupying forces at some point, too. Even in an idyllic touristy resort area, being cut off from home, surrounded by water on most sides and enemies on the rest, is not necessarily a recipe for long-term morale. Nationalist fervor can only keep you going so far, especially if staples like drinking water or electricity become difficult to procure. With all this in mind, it still seems like there’s not much further this could go. 

A final thought - one that actually brings it back to where it started - is that a Fourth Turning indicates the means and the will to invest all resources in attacking a problem. A Second Turning is about trying to hold things together when everything starts to fly apart. The United States does not appear willing to make an investment for the Ukraine. Russia looks as though it is trying hard simply to hold it all together.