A jump in the stock market because some people think Putin blinked is hardly reason enough to consider the last two days completely vindicated. It seems to be heading in the direction expected, though. And found some other articles on strategic considerations, how smart Putin really is, and the non-monolithic Russian view.
The Cold War keeps coming up in regards to this. Surprisingly, the Crimean War doesn’t, even though it's more applicable in all sorts of ways. There's, uh, the Crimean part. Although the Second Turning part isn't part of common historical discourse, it's been previously noted as a related possibility. Actually, any further connections would get lost in the Second Turning-ness of either that time or this time.
Is the Cold War possibility because of the offset between (2T) Russia and the (4T) United States? After World War II, America was in the First Turning, while (by this theory) the USSR was in the Third. The Kitchen Debate, with improvements in the USSR being contrasted with state of the art in the U.S., would seem to be in line with this view. But what could be the equivalent of the atomic bomb tests, which appeared to really move the relationship from uneasy victors of the War to potential (but never quite actual) antagonists?
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