First

After casual assertions that Russia and the Ukraine are entering a Second Turning, it is perhaps time to explain how that could be so. And to describe how sheep’s bladders may be employed to prevent earthquakes...er, that is, how to identify the Four Turnings. One at at time...

The Four Turnings are a cycle, so that the First Turning follows the Fourth. In the Fourth, there are massive and usually violent changes, while institutions - like government, large companies, army/navy/air force/marines - become strong as people look to get big jobs done. When the big work is done, though, the institutions are still strong for a while. While people are glad that a major job has been completed, the ability to do less pressing but still worthwhile pursuits beckons. 

In the First Turning, therefore, we often see

Exploration and Discovery: 1492 was the year that Ferdinand and Isabella finalized the Reconquista. A decades-long period of war was over, Spain was a regional power, but there wasn’t anyone to fight, anymore. And then this italian merchant shows up suggesting a new way to get to the Indies... After the Revolutionary War came Lewis and Clark (1804). After World War II,  the Marianas Trench (1960). 

Public works: Another way to use up excess enthusiasm is to point resources at big, popular, helpful projects.  Consider something like the Interstate Highway System (1956) , allowing easy automobile transport from New York to Los Angeles.  Or buying up a chunk of the continent, as Jefferson did with the Louisiana Purchase 

However, the combination of exuberance and strong institutions also lead naturally to

Corruption: Those public works don’t fund themselves, nor do the institutions behind them. It is easy (and unfortunately common) for the large sums of money required by governments, companies, unions, etc. in the Fourth Turning to be siphoned away by those with connections.  The Transcontinental Railroad - and the associated public subsidies - led to the Credit Mobilier scandal, and the general post-war atmosphere of corruption was described by Mark Twain in "The Gilded Age."  

Witch hunts: Too often, one of those aforementioned worthwhile pursuits is finding new people to fight. And so much the simpler if those people can’t easily fight back. Communists in 1947, Jews in 1492, actual witches in 1692....

So how does this suggest that Russia is finishing their First and heading into their Second Turning? For various reasons, it appears their last Fourth Turning ended (as did the Soviet Union) in 1991. While it’s a little too cynical to call the subsequent privatization of industry a public work, it was certainly either source or evidence of significant corruption. And, as previously noted, that corruption is leading to exactly the sort of demonstrations that symbolize a Second Turning.